An in-depth analysis of the Sogavare-Tovosia blame game
The Solomon Islands is in a deepening political crisis as a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele is set for tomorrow.
Central to this turmoil is a public blame game between two key figures: Bradley Tovosia, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Mines, Energy, and Rural Electrification, and Manasseh Sogavare, the former Finance Minister.
Their dispute revolves around mismanagement in the mining sector, particularly missing revenues and governance failures, which have fueled political defections and public discontent.
This analysis examines Tovosia and Sogavare’s roles, the specifics of the mining mess, the accusations they’ve leveled against each other, the broader political and economic context, and the implications for the Solomon Islands’ stability and international relations.
The Mining Sector and Political Crisis
The Solomon Islands’ economy has historically relied on logging, but with forest resources dwindling, the government has sought to pivot toward mining as a new revenue source.
However, the sector is plagued by regulatory weaknesses, corruption allegations, and mismanagement, particularly in high-profile cases like the 33 shipments from bauxite mining operations on Rennell Island.
These issues have become a flashpoint in the current political crisis, as economic stagnation and governance failures erode public and parliamentary confidence in Manele’s Government of National Unity and Transformation (GNUT).
On April 28, 2025, 10 MPs, including five cabinet ministers, resigned from the GNUT coalition, citing a lack of confidence in Manele’s leadership.
Leading this walkout was Manasseh Sogavare, a four-time former prime minister and finance minister, who has since formed a new coalition with opposition figures like Matthew Wale and Peter Kenilorea Jr. to challenge Manele via a no-confidence motion.
Bradley Tovosia, the deputy prime minister and mines minister, also resigned. Defecting MPs cited his conduct and influence as a key grievance.
The mining sector’s mismanagement has emerged as a central issue, with Sogavare and Tovosia publicly trading accusations over who bears responsibility for the “mining mess.”
Sogavare recently revealed that 18 alluvial mining licenses were ready to be issued by the Ministry of Mines, but the process came to a halt following the political fallout.
“There are serious indications. I can only say that. Around 18 licenses have been halted. They were prepared and ready to go, but because of this move [our resignation from GNUT], that did not happen,” he said.
“When it comes to how many minerals are going out, and how much money is coming in, there is nothing like that. No records,” he revealed.
“I issued my directive to the Central Bank: all money that goes out of the country from mineral exports must come back to the Central Bank.”
But Tovosia denied accusations by Sogavare.
“In terms of the mining industry, it is operated by a statutory body, the Mines and Minerals Board. That board makes the decisions on licenses and operations, not the minister. So to say I caused the mess, I don’t see that as accurate,” he said.
Both MPs under the Sogavare-led DCGA government came up with the “Mining fast-tracking policy” in 2020.
Transparency Solomon Islands CEO Ruth Liloqula said, “This blame game makes them look childish and unprofessional in the public eye.”
“From my observation and from information shared by resource owners, comments and sharing on complaints raised in our office about the activities, conduct, practice and behavior of loggers turned miners, and the gazettes giving them legal authority to log Tubi or to log in tenements given to them by Ministry of Mines, both are equally responsible.”
“During the most recent election, in a number of constituencies it was the transportations of a few miners close to Members of Parliament that were moving voters around.”
“The speed at which Mining Licenses are issued and Mining Lease Areas demarcated without due process most of which occurred before the election can only happen with the knowledge of both.”
“They have been enjoying all the ‘mess’ themselves. Look at Rennell, Guadalcanal, Isabel, and now Choiseul. All these mining leases were given by their governments. It’s a rip-off for the people because of their selfish decisions. Now playing hide and seek.”
Tovosia has been a key figure in the OUR Party, which dominates the GNUT coalition. He faced an electoral petition challenging his 2024 election win, reflecting his polarizing presence. His tenure as acting prime minister in October 2024, during which he engaged with Chinese officials from China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH) shows his role in fostering economic ties with China.
He has been criticized for his leadership style and alleged mismanagement of the mining portfolio.
On the other hand, Sogavare was the Finance Minister and a wing leader of the OUR Party until his resignation on April 28, 2025.
As finance minister, he was responsible for fiscal policy and revenue management, including oversight of mining-related income.
Known for his pro-China policies, including the 2019 diplomatic switch from Taiwan to Beijing and the 2022 security pact with China, Sogavare is a polarizing figure both domestically and internationally.
Sogavare’s resignation and likely claim to leadership of the new coalition suggest a strategic bid to reclaim power. His criticisms of Manele and Tovosia reflect both genuine grievances and political opportunism, leveraging the mining mess to undermine the current government.
The Mining Mess
The mining sector’s challenges are multifaceted, involving regulatory failures, revenue losses, and corruption allegations.
Missing Mining Revenues
The Solomon Islands has struggled to capture revenue from mining, particularly from bauxite operations on Rennell Island, and minerals from other provinces. Local media and opposition figures have highlighted significant losses due to weak oversight and duty exemptions granted to foreign companies.
A high-profile case involves nearly 80 kilograms of gold, worth approximately AUD 5.2 million (SBD 30 million), allegedly exported illegally, exposing regulatory lapses under Tovosia’s watch.
Rennell Island Bauxite Mining
Bauxite mining on Rennell Island, operated by foreign firms, has been contentious due to environmental damage and minimal economic benefits for locals. Critics argue that the state and landowners have lost significant income due to mismanagement and favorable tax breaks for companies, some allegedly linked to government allies.
Mineral Resources Bill 2023
The rejection of a Mineral Resources Bill in November 2024, criticized for favoring foreign interests, further inflamed tensions. Sogavare has pointed to these failures as evidence of governance breakdowns under Manele and Tovosia.
Corruption Allegations
Allegations of corruption have dogged the mining sector, with claims that shell companies linked to OUR Party figures, including Sogavare’s son, have benefited from mining deals. Former prime minister Gordon Darcy Lilo, who filed the no-confidence motion, has cited these issues as a reason for challenging Manele’s government.
Tovosia’s appointment of the Solomon Islands Water Authority (SIWA) board in October 2024 was seen as being politically motivated, adding to perceptions of cronyism in his portfolio.
The Blame Game
The public dispute between Tovosia and Sogavare centers on who is responsible for the mining sector’s failures, with each leveraging the issue to deflect blame and justify their resignations.
Sogavare has publicly hinted at “improper behavior” by Tovosia, suggesting that his conduct as deputy prime minister and the mines Minister contributed to the ‘mining mess’, and eventual resignations.
In a statement reported by The Canberra Times and Crookwell Gazette, Sogavare pointed to “governance failures” and “missing mining revenues” as key reasons for abandoning Manele’s government, implicitly targeting Tovosia’s oversight of the mines Portfolio.
Sogavare’s criticisms also align with broader coalition grievances. Local outlet In-depth Solomons reported that defecting MPs were unhappy with Tovosia’s influence and behavior, though specific allegations remain undisclosed.
Tovosia’s Defense and Implicit Counter-Accusations
Tovosia has not directly responded to Sogavare’s accusations, but his resignation statement stated that his decision was in the “national interest” and followed a coalition meeting where partners prioritized national stability. This suggests an attempt to distance himself from the government’s broader failures, including those in the mining sector.
Tovosia’s defenders, including some coalition allies, have argued that the mining sector’s issues predate his tenure and reflect systemic weaknesses, such as outdated regulations and Sogavare’s fiscal policies as finance minister. For instance, a Solomon Star News report from November 2024 noted MPs’ earlier threats to walk out over Sogavare’s and Tovosia’s roles, indicating shared blame.
Tovosia’s engagement with Chinese firms like SINOMACH in October 2024, while acting prime minister, may also be a point of contention, as Sogavare’s pro-China policies have shaped the mining sector’s direction. Tovosia could argue that Sogavare’s broader economic strategy limited his ability to reform the sector.
Shared Responsibility
Both Tovosia and Sogavare bear responsibility for the ‘mining mess’, given their senior roles in the Sogavare-led DCGA Government and recently the Manele’s GNUT-government. Tovosia’s direct oversight of mining operations made him a visible target for criticism, while Sogavare’s fiscal policies and alleged ties to controversial deals implicate him in systemic failures.
“It’s not only this year, but they have been partners for the ‘mess’ since the DCGA government tenure,” says Liloqula.
The November 2024 Solomon Star News report highlighted MPs’ disillusionment with both figures, suggesting that the blame game is partly a political tactic to deflect scrutiny. Sogavare’s high-profile exit and coalition-building efforts indicate a strategic move to capitalize on the crisis, while Tovosia’s quieter resignation may reflect his weaker political position.
Political and Economic Context
The blame game unfolds against a backdrop of economic hardship and political instability, amplifying its significance:
Economic Challenges
The Solomon Islands faces declining logging revenues, high unemployment, and a struggling health and education system. The mining sector’s failure to deliver promised revenues has intensified public frustration, making it a potent political weapon.
The rejection of the Mineral Resources Bill and allegations of illegal gold exports have eroded trust in the government’s economic management, with both Tovosia and Sogavare implicated in these failures.
Coalition Instability
The GNUT coalition’s fragility, reliant on independents and micro-parties, has enabled rapid shifts in allegiance. The mass resignations on April 28, 2025, including those of Tovosia and Sogavare, reflect this volatility, with the mining mess serving as a pretext for broader dissatisfaction with Manele’s leadership.
Sogavare’s formation of a new coalition with former rivals like Matthew Wale suggests a calculated bid to regain power, using Tovosia as a scapegoat to rally support.
Public Sentiment
Public frustration with corruption and economic stagnation has fueled support for the no-confidence motion. The ‘mining mess’, particularly the Rennell Island case, resonates with citizens who see little benefit from resource extraction. Sogavare’s accusations against Tovosia tap into this sentiment, though his controversial record limits his credibility.
Implications
Domestic Politics
The blame game has deepened divisions within the OUR Party, which counted both Tovosia and Sogavare as key members. The no-confidence vote’s outcome will determine whether Manele survives or a new government, potentially led by Sogavare, emerges.
If Sogavare returns as prime minister, the mining mess could prompt reforms, but his history suggests a continuation of pro-China policies and potential cronyism. Tovosia’s political future is uncertain, as his resignation and public criticism may weaken his standing.
Economic Reforms
The mining sector’s failures highlight the need for regulatory overhaul, transparency, and equitable revenue-sharing.
However, the blame game risks delaying reforms, as political maneuvering takes precedence. The new coalition’s inclusion of figures like Peter Kenilorea Jr., who advocates for anti-corruption measures, could push for change if they gain power.
Geopolitical Ramifications
The mining mess and political crisis have drawn international attention, particularly from Australia and China. Australia, a major aid donor, is concerned about Sogavare’s potential return, given his pro-China stance and past tensions. A $190 million policing package announced in December 2024 hangs in the balance.
China’s influence, evident in mining-related engagements like Tovosia’s SINOMACH meeting, remains strong. The blame game could affect the Solomon Islands’ alignment in the Pacific’s geopolitical contest.
Risk of Unrest
Honiara’s history of post-election violence (e.g., 2021 riots) raises concerns about public reaction to the crisis. Manele’s calls for calm and increased police presence reflect this risk.
The mining mess, tied to perceptions of elite corruption, could ignite unrest if the no-confidence vote produces a contentious outcome.
Critical Examination
While Sogavare’s accusations against Tovosia highlight real issues in the mining sector, they must be scrutinized for political motives.
Sogavare’s record, including allegations of corruption and his role in shaping the sector’s pro-China orientation, undermines his credibility as a critic.
Tovosia’s resignation and lack of a robust defense suggest he may be a convenient scapegoat, but his oversight failures as mines minister are undeniable.
The establishment narrative, as reported by outlets like The Canberra Times and ABC News, frames the crisis as a coalition split driven by governance issues, but it downplays the systemic corruption and external influences (e.g., China’s role) that exacerbate the mining mess.
A critical view reveals that both Tovosia and Sogavare are complicit in a broader failure of leadership, with their blame game serving to deflect accountability and advance personal agendas.
Conclusion
The blame game between Bradley Tovosia and Manasseh Sogavare over the Solomon Islands’ mining mess is a microcosm of the country’s broader political and economic challenges.
Tovosia’s alleged mismanagement as mines minister, particularly in regulating Rennell Island operations and preventing revenue losses, has made him a target for Sogavare, who has leveraged these failures to justify his defection and push for Manele’s ousting.
However, Sogavare’s fiscal policies and controversial ties to mining deals implicate him in the same governance failures he decries. The dispute, amplified by public frustration and coalition instability, threatens to reshape the government ahead of the May 6, 2025, no-confidence vote.
The mining mess shows the urgent need for transparency, regulatory reform, and equitable resource management in the Solomon Islands. Yet, the political maneuvering of Tovosia and Sogavare risks prioritizing power struggles over substantive change.
As the vote approaches, the outcome will not only determine Manele’s fate but also shape Solomon Islands’ economic trajectory and geopolitical alignments, with implications for regional stability in the Pacific.
The blame game, while highlighting real issues, is ultimately a symptom of a deeper crisis of leadership and accountability that continues to challenge the nation.