_{𝐵𝑦 Dr. Tarcisius Kabutaulaka}

As campaigns for the April 17 elections heat up, political parties, candidates and their supporters compete in pitching their policies and ideas to voters. 

Elections are fundamental to democracy. However this hyper-politicized process is often laced with emotions that could potentially undermine constructive debates that are necessary to give voters clear choices. This is complicated by campaign speeches that constitute about 20 percent substance, 30 percent half-baked ideas, and the remaining 50 percent is political rhetoric and varying degrees of untruths. Voters have to wade through a murky pool of “sweet talks” to make the right choice.

This election is perhaps the most important to Solomon Islands since independence because there is a lot at stake. So, what is at stake?

First, the country’s economy is in a terrible state. According to the Central Bank of Solomon Islands (CBSI) the country’s real GDP growth in January 2024 was 2.4%. This growth was however built on consistently low and negative growth in the past five years: 1.7% in 2019; -3.4% 2020; -0.6% in 2021; and -4.1% in 2022. The huge contraction in 2022 was attributed to the adverse impacts of Covid-19 and the global economic deceleration due to the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. CBSI predicted improvements in 2023 “on the back of anticipated spill-over effects from the . . . Pacific Games across most sectors of the economy as well as positive outlook for mining, fishing and agriculture.” However, GDP growth in 2023 was a modest 2.5%. 

Furthermore, anticipations that the establishment of diplomatic relations with China would stimulate economic growth has not been realized. In an article published in the Yumi Tok Tok Forum on August 25, 2019, Danny Philip, asked, “. . . where can we get the ‘booster’ that we need to achieve a[n] economic quantum leap?” Implicit in his rhetorical question was the expectation that China would boost the country’s economy towards the “quantum leap.” That has not happened. 

The country’s stunted economic growth is due largely to poor policies and financial mismanagement by successive governments, including the Democratic Coalition Government for Advancement (DCGA). As a result the Solomon Islands government has not been able to provide adequate, accessible and quality services. Solomon Islanders constantly complain about the poor state of health, education and other social services. Most people struggle to make ends meet as inflation rate at 3.9% in January 2024 outpace economic growth, causing the cost of goods and services to become unaffordable to most citizens. 

Consequently, economic reform and better fiscal management will be one of the first tasks the new government must tackle. However, economic weaknesses are related to other issues, like the need for good governance. Allegations of rampant corruption, for example, have undermined citizen’s confidence in the state and weakened state-society relations. Hence, to address the economy, the new government must address other related issues. That will require broad, deep and comprehensive reforms – a complete overhaul in some instances.

Second, the intensity of competitions by both domestic and international actors to capture and influence the state is a cause for concern. While competitions for state attention and societal influence is not unusual, what is happening in Solomon Islands could undermine the machineries of government and unravel the fabrics of society. 

These competitions are multi-layered, complicated and illustrate the entanglements between international and domestic politics. Solomon Islands has become entwined in the increasing geopolitical competition between China and the U.S. and its allies. These global powers have a vested interest in the outcome of this election. Despite rhetoric about respecting Solomon Islands sovereignty, it is worth noting that they have the capacity to influence domestic politics; which they have used in the past, including on each other. Although there is no beating drum evidence that this is happening, it would be naïve to think they have not used that capacity, sometimes in insidious ways.  

In the U.S. Congress’ Foreign Relations Committee hearing on “U.S. Strategy on the Pacific Islands Region” on March 14, 2024, it was obvious from the testimonies of witnesses and questions from the committee members that the Pacific Ocean and islands are strategically vital to the U.S. Solomon Islands was mentioned many times, especially in relation to China’s growing influence and the 2022 China-Solomon Islands security agreement.

The stakeholders also include non-state actors either linked to foreign governments or who have a vested interest in Solomon Islands diplomatic alignments. It was therefore not surprising that when the former Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani and his advisor Celsius Talifilu visited the U.S. in April 2023, they were sponsored and hosted by rightwing organizations such as The Heritage Foundation. Such organizations see countering China’s growing and assertive influence as important to the U.S., and therefore viewed Suidani and Talifilu’s anti-China rhetoric as fitting their objectives.

On the other hand, China has made huge headways in the Pacific Islands, especially in establishing diplomatic relations with Solomon Islands in 2019, and re-establishing ties with Kiribati and Nauru in 2019 and 2023 respectively. Beijing would therefore harness its resources to maintain its relations with Honiara. Revelations in January 2024 that a Chinese diplomat was trying to influence and control Solomon Islands media is not surprising and perhaps reflect much deeper attempts to influence, not only the mainstream media but also social media posts and discussions, especially in the lead up to the April elections. 

Maybe it is not a coincidence that the Chinese Ambassador to Solomon Islands Cai Weiming decided to give a talk titled “China’s Development and the Future of China-Solomon Islands Relationship” this week on March 21. Presentations like this in the midst of election campaign could boost China’s profile and potentially influence election-related discussions, if not the outcome.

Beijing must be concerned following Peter Kenilorea Jr’s statement that if his United Party were to form government, it would re-evaluate the China-Solomon Islands security agreement and re-establish ties with Taiwan. While the security pact should be made more transparent and re-evaluated, relations with China are important and could potentially benefit Solomon Islands. The challenge for the new government is to better manage the relationship to ensure that Solomon Islands interests are paramount. 

There is another group who are much more influential. These are Chinese business people, many of them Solomon Islands citizens and represented in the Solomon Islands Chinese Business Council (SICBC) that was established in 2021. They benefit financially from Solomon Islands’ relationship with Beijing. For example, many received sub-contracts from Chinese state owned enterprise (SOE) that have won contracts for projects funded by the Chinese government as well as other financiers such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank and the Solomon Islands Government (like SINU’s Panatina complex). So far, the two major ones are China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) and the China Habour Engineering Company (CHEC). Chinese entrepreneurs, SOEs and private companies like Win Win have had disproportionate and sometimes unfettered access to and influence over the DCGA government. They are familiar with Solomon Islands political culture, have more resources at their disposal and more access to local elites. They are therefore vital to Beijing’s diplomatic relation with Solomon Islands. The power of Chinese companies is also evident in other Pacific Island countries.

Third, the issues and language of geopolitical competition have been appropriated and deployed in election politics. For example, in his speech during the launch of Our Party in Auki on March 15, 2024, Manasseh Sogavare highlighted the establishment of relations with China as a correction of the “mistake committed by Solomon Islands in 1983” when it established diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which he referred to as “a province of China.” Similarly, candidates from opposing parties have raised concerns about the way in which that relationship was established, and as stated above, Kenilorea Jr proposed re-establishing diplomatic relations with Taiwan. These are examples of politicians appropriating geopolitical discourses for domestic purposes and audiences. 

Fourth, the fact that provincial and national elections will be held at the same time could mean that provincial issues will be overshadowed, if not completely ignored in the election discourses. This could undermine provincial governments. It will be interesting to see the quality of candidates elected to the provincial assemblies.  

There is a lot at stake on April 17. Solomon Islanders will have to disentangle webs of issues, stakeholders, and competing interests to choose their next group of political leaders. 

Tarcisius Kabutaulaka is an associate professor and former director of the Center for Pacific Islands Studies at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa.